Aswath Damodaran values Anthropic's equity at about $1.475 trillion, just under the $1.5-2 trillion IPO range

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran valued Anthropic after its 26 October S-1 at about $1.475 trillion, at the low end of the $1.5-2 trillion pricing range he cites, assuming revenue near $1 trillion by 2036, a 27.5% operating margin after regulatory drag, $1 of reinvestment per $3 of new revenue, a 9.74% cost of capital and a 10% chance of failure. His range runs from negative equity in a worst case to $4.04 trillion in a best case. He notes 1,900 customers now spend over $1M a year, but growth slowed in Q3 and the top five customers are 25% of revenue, and criticises the five share classes and public-benefit structure. He will sit out if the IPO prices well above his value.