Robin Rivaton: France’s debt crisis, everything you need to know

Founder and economist Robin Rivaton argues France faces a price crisis, not yet a liquidity crisis: the 10-year OAT yield hit 4.99% on October 2 and the spread over Germany passed 130bp, the widest since 2012. With the Eurosystem no longer reinvesting, France must find about €290–300bn a year from mostly foreign investors while competing with heavier German Bund issuance and AI-infrastructure debt, and he flags the first half of 2027 as the riskiest window, with about €140bn to refinance before the presidential election. Shared approvingly by David Galbraith.