Polymarket presses Europe to treat its bets as financial products

Prediction-market platform Polymarket is lobbying London, Brussels and EU member-state regulators to be treated as a financial-services firm under Mifid rather than under country-by-country gambling rules — arguing its contracts are more like derivatives (the CFTC’s US framing) than bets. Retail prediction markets are banned across much of Europe (VPN workarounds aside); the company, fundraising above US$12.9B valuation, has engaged Esma and the Commission and met member-state supervisors seeking licences. In June Esma chair Verena Ross met Polymarket legal staff plus A&O Shearman and Hanbury Strategy; a day later executives met FCA CEO Nikhil Rathi. Polymarket joined Blockchain For Europe this month. The FCA is reviewing retail access rules but still calls its binary-options ban appropriate given “gambling-like” harm risk; it draws a line between financial/climatic events (FCA remit) and politics/sports (Gambling Commission) — where Polymarket and rival Kalshi earn most revenue. UK/France/Germany/Italy gambling regulators say local licences would be required. Esma recently warned prediction markets are “rife with insider trading” and appears reluctant to loosen EU rules. Esma and FCA declined to comment; Polymarket says it is committed to early engagement as it expands.