Seed rounds at $100M valuations mean even a unicorn 'isn't that great of an outcome', says BTV's Sheel Mohnot
What's the deal? Sheel MohnotDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom →, co-founder and general partner of seed firm Better Tomorrow VenturesDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom → (BTV), says AI-era prices are breaking the maths of seed investing. "A lot of seed rounds are being done at $100 million valuations. If this company's worth a billion dollars, a unicorn, it actually still isn't that great of an outcome for me," he said in an interview clip posted by MTS on 30 October.
Why the maths breaks: "If I was investing at $100 million valuations, I would need a lot of $10 billion-plus outcomes. There aren't that many $10 billion-plus outcomes in history," Mohnot said. He added that at a seed summit the day before, some people who called themselves seed investors said they sometimes back companies at $200 million valuations. "Man, it's just hard to make the math work. My brain hurts thinking about that."
By the numbers: In an excerpt from its September LP update, BTV wrote that, per Carta, the top 5% of seed rounds are now priced at $200 million or more, up 177% in a single year, while the median seed is around $24 million. "What we have spent many years calling seed is now labeled pre-seed, and what's now labeled seed often carries a Series A price with a seed product and traction," the partners wrote, adding that "paying up" keeps getting conflated with conviction.
Where BTV lands: The firm says it is sticking to small, first-money-in rounds and will only stretch on price when it sees a potential generational outcome with a structural advantage, such as a company that owns the outcome rather than selling a tool. BTV, which focuses on fintech, closed its third fund at about $140 million in October 2025, taking it to $450 million in assets under management.
Why it matters: The comments landed at the end of a week in which public AI stocks sold off sharply and OpenAI cut its funding target, while private early-stage prices kept climbing. At a $100 million entry price, a $1 billion exit is a 10x on paper before dilution from later rounds, which is why Mohnot says seed funds investing there would need many $10 billion-plus outcomes to return their money.
Sources: MTS on X (video), Better Tomorrow Ventures LP update excerpt, BTV III announcement
Image credit: MTS
