NewsOct 26, 2026, 09:56 UTC

Apollo's Slok: AI payoff is 'zero' for the S&P 493 outside Big Tech

What's the deal? Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, published a five-chart note on October 24 arguing that AI has delivered "zero" financial payoff to S&P 500 companies outside the Magnificent Seven. His label for those firms is the "S&P 493" — the index minus Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.

The numbers: Apollo's charts, inflation-adjusted to 2019, show Magnificent Seven revenue per employee rising from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000 in 2026. The S&P 493 has stayed flat near $550,000 since 2019. Profit margins tell the same story: climbing for the Magnificent Seven since the third quarter of 2023, flat for everyone else.

Why it matters: "Mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins," Slok wrote. He argues most firms "do not need the latest model" and are unwilling to pay for it, keeping agentic AI confined to a small part of the economy.

Why now? The note landed as earnings season opened, with AI spending surging at the top while the rest of the index stays flat. Gartner estimated more than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be at risk of impairment by 2030 if revenue fails to justify it.

The caveat: "Zero" is Slok's reading of aggregate trends, not a settled finding. McKinsey's 2026 survey found 37% of respondents attributed at least some EBIT impact to AI, and 80% said it improved individual productivity. Deloitte found two-thirds reported efficiency gains, though only 20% said AI had lifted revenue — pointing to a gap between workplace gains and enterprise results.

The signal: The open question, Slok wrote, is whether firms can turn cheap intelligence into higher revenue and margins. "That may be harder than it sounds. AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment." Until the payoff spreads beyond a handful of tech giants, he warns, the macroeconomic effects of AI will stay limited.