Kalshi eyes $40B valuation as revenue doubles to $4B annualized
What's the deal? Prediction market Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise a Series G round at a $40 billion valuation, according to a person familiar with the matter. That would be nearly double the valuation from its funding round announced in May.
Why now? World Cup wagers helped double Kalshi's revenue to a more than $4 billion annualized rate in July, up from over $2 billion two months earlier. The company generates revenue mainly from fees on trading activity.
The money trail: Kalshi has been raising in rapid-fire rounds. Its May round, led by Coatue, brought in $1 billion, following another $1 billion raised at the end of 2025 at an $11 billion valuation.
What's the endgame? A $40 billion private valuation would top crypto exchange Coinbase's market cap and compare with Robinhood's roughly $85 billion. Kalshi's rapid growth has prompted informal talks with bankers about an initial public offering as soon as next year.
What could go wrong? Kalshi's June operating expenses hit $300 million, mostly marketing — implying $3.6 billion annualised if maintained. Its blitz featured ads with Timothée Chalamet and Lionel Messi, plus a FIFADealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom → World Cup 2026 sponsorship.
The company also faces legal risk. New York state sued Kalshi last month over alleged illegal gambling, seeking to force it to forfeit its gains. Kalshi says it is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has directed it to keep operating; sports contracts make up over 80% of its trading volume.
The rivals: Robinhood, once a top source of Kalshi's volume, has shifted orders to RotheraDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom →, its joint venture with Susquehanna International GroupDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom →. Robinhood made up just 17.5% of Kalshi's second-quarter volume, down from nearly 50% a year earlier. Smaller rival Polymarket is meanwhile in talks to raise about $1 billion at a $20 billion valuation.
The signal: Event contracts have moved from niche to a crowded battleground, drawing in Robinhood, DraftKings, and traditional gambling apps. With marketing a key front and regulators circling, Kalshi's soaring valuation reflects both the sector's momentum and its unresolved legal footing.
Read more: The Information
Image credit: Jim Makos
