Polymarket seeks $400M at $15B valuation as prediction markets boom
What's the deal? Polymarket, the largest prediction market outside the US, is in talks to raise $400M at a $15B post-money valuation. The round would add to the $600M that Intercontinental ExchangeDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom →, parent of the New York Stock ExchangeDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom →, invested in March 2026 without disclosing the valuation.
Polymarket is looking to bring in additional strategic investors beyond ICE, which could push the total round to $1B. The deal has not closed and terms could change — the company is weighing whether to accept the $15B price or hold out for more.
Founded by Shayne CoplanDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom → in 2020, the six-year-old startup settles trades on a blockchain and has discussed issuing a token. It also plans to eventually pursue an IPO. ICE has now invested roughly $1.6B in total, completing its planned $2B commitment announced in October 2025.
Why now? Prediction markets are in a breakout moment. Polymarket's notional trading volume hit $10.6B in March 2026 — six times the level from six months earlier, according to Dune Analytics. Users buy event contracts for less than $1, betting on outcomes from sports to elections to AI model releases.
The platform became a household name during the 2024 US presidential race, when it emerged as one of the most-watched indicators of election odds. Since then, it has launched a US-facing app and started charging fees for the first time — a critical step toward building sustainable revenue.
What could go wrong? Polymarket still trails rival Kalshi on nearly every business metric. Kalshi reports roughly $1.5B in annualised revenue and recently raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue. Polymarket's fee model, by contrast, is nascent.
Regulation remains a live risk. State gaming regulators argue prediction markets fall under gambling law and have sought to shut them down in court. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission claims federal oversight, but the legal fight is far from settled. In 2022, the CFTC banned Polymarket from accepting US trades — a ban it only resolved by acquiring a US-registered derivatives exchange in 2025.
Insider trading is another concern. OpenAI fired an employee in early 2026 for trading on prediction markets using confidential company information. Bipartisan legislation has since been proposed to ban government employees from using insider information on event contracts.
The signal: At $15B, Polymarket's valuation would increase 67% from its $9B round in October 2025 — but the gap to Kalshi's $22B tells a story. Polymarket's crypto-native architecture and late US entry mean it is playing catch-up on revenue even as it leads on volume and cultural relevance.
ICE's deepening commitment — from $1B stake to $1.6B and counting — signals that traditional finance now views event-based trading as a durable asset class. The search for new strategic backers beyond ICE suggests Polymarket wants to diversify its investor base before the next phase: a token, an IPO, or both.
Sources:
The Information
Bloomberg
Reuters
The Guardian
Tech Funding News
Economic Times
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