Japan ‘months’ from running out of critical rare earth as China squeezes supply

Japan is months away from running out of yttrium, a heat-resistant rare earth used to coat engines and the plasma-etching chambers used in chipmaking and critical to jet-engine turbines. Tokyo has asked the US government and American blue-chip companies to press China to ease its rare-earth export controls. Japanese officials and trading-house executives say shortages could emerge as early as the end of this year unless Beijing changes course or allies find substitutes or extra stockpiles. 'The timeline is not years, it's months,' one official said; 'stockpiles are decreasing and rare earth saving efforts have a limit.' Outside China, yttrium oxide now costs $1,150/kg, a 179-fold rise in two years, against $9/kg inside China (Argus). US defence supply chains rely on Japanese components containing yttrium. A US–Japan critical-minerals 'rapid response group' met in Washington last month, two weeks before Trump hosted Xi at the White House. A senior US official said China is fulfilling about two-thirds of its rare-earth commitments to the US and allowing Japan to buy only the bare minimum of its needs. Beijing also tightened export controls on Japan after PM Sanae Takaichi's Taiwan comments. US officials have told Beijing they will not export the jet engines needed for Comac's C919, citing production constrained by the lack of yttrium. China's May agreement to buy 200 Boeing jets has not been completed, partly because of critical-minerals complications. Caveats: Japan's economy ministry and the US Treasury declined to comment specifically on yttrium, and China's embassy did not respond. The official added: 'If everyone acts right now, then it will be OK.' CSIS's Gracelin Baskaran calls it 'rightful panic in Japan'.