AI demand to exceed supply for 2 more years, says ASML
ASML says AI-driven demand for its lithography machines is now expected to outrun planned supply into 2028: CEO Christophe Fouquet said “we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” and that customers show “interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.” Q3 net sales rose 55% YoY to €11.7bn (in line) and net income rose 134% to €5bn, including a €500mn revaluation gain on its Mistral stake; Q4 sales guidance was raised to €14.2bn–€15.2bn (Visible Alpha consensus ~€14.3bn) and FY guidance to €44bn–€45bn (low end up from €43bn). The company is investigating capacity increases for 2028 beyond the previously communicated 30% EUV rise (July plan also +30% for next year), via upgrades of customers’ existing machines plus more production; High-NA HVM at TSMC was “basically confirmed” “around 2030,” joining Samsung and Intel. A completed new round of price negotiations is expected to “become visible partly” in next year’s results; shares are up 78% over 12 months despite an October sell-off; Goldman puts AI infrastructure spend at more than $1tn this year. Companion: Patrick Jenkins interview “ASML chief: There is only one company making those machines”.
Why it matters
Europe’s sole EUV choke-point just told markets planned 2027–28 capacity will miss AI demand and that customers are already eyeing 2029–30 orders — core for Dealroom’s European tech capacity, semiconductor, and AI-infra coverage, with a Mistral stake revaluation as a Europe AI-equity signal.
Executive takeaways
Demand vs supply: Fouquet — planned 2027 and 2028 supply “will not fully meet” customer demand; customers interested in orders for 2029 and even 2030; “a lot of order intake for 2028”; TSMC and Intel see “very, very strong demand” and are accelerating capacity plans. | • Numbers: Q3 sales +55% YoY to €11.7bn (in line); net income +134% to €5bn incl. €500mn Mistral stake revaluation; Q4 guidance €14.2–15.2bn (consensus ~€14.3bn); FY €44–45bn (low end from €43bn). | • Capacity response: exploring ways to expand beyond the previously communicated 30% EUV increase for 2028; July plan +30% next year; upgrades of existing customer machines plus more production. | • High-NA / pricing: TSMC “basically confirmed” High-NA HVM “around 2030” (joining Samsung and Intel); new price-negotiation round completed, to become visible partly in next year’s results. | • Market context: shares +78% over 12 months despite October sell-off; Goldman AI infra spend >$1tn this year.
What Financial Times may be missing
How much of the €5bn Q3 net income is the one-off €500mn Mistral revaluation versus operating earnings, and does the piece give a clean run-rate without that gain? What is ASML’s customer concentration (TSMC/Intel and others) and China / export-control exposure — neither is quantified here. Does interest in ordering for 2029–30 reflect genuine multi-year demand, or double-ordering / capacity-booking behaviour the article does not test? Capacity “beyond 30%” and pricing visibility “partly” next year remain directional rather than sized.
