Anthropic’s Rapid But Slowing Growth Could Weigh on IPO Valuation
Cory Weinberg reports that at a private meeting with prospective IPO investors in San Francisco on Wednesday, Anthropic said third-quarter revenue was $16.8B (per people briefed), about 45% above Q2 and more than 3.6x its full-year 2025 revenue — but a sharp slowdown from Q2, when Claude Code demand drove growth of more than 140% over Q1. Adjusted operating margin was 11% for the year through Q3 (one person; it excludes major costs such as stock compensation; an accompanying briefing was corrected to make clear the margin is year-to-date, not Q3 alone). Anthropic estimated 5–7% of revenue comes from distillation — other companies using its models to train their own — and said that revenue will decline and weigh on the current quarter. Some potential investors were disappointed and think bankers should lower valuation expectations, possibly below $1.5T, versus the $2T some bankers have floated privately; the private valuation reached $965B in May, up from under $20B two years earlier. The IPO is expected next month, before Thanksgiving. Backdrop: higher borrowing costs, falling AI data-center stocks and Firmus Grid pulling its Australian IPO last week; OpenAI is undercutting on enterprise price and rivals (OpenAI, Google, Meta, open-source) are closing gaps. Caveats: figures come from people briefed rather than filings; Anthropic did not update annualised revenue ($65B in July) and the article carries no company comment.
Why it matters
The defining AI IPO of the cycle and the biggest test of public appetite for AI: hard revenue, margin and valuation-range data points for Anthropic’s Dealroom profile (status heading to IPO), plus a benchmark for every AI-lab and AI-app valuation Dealroom tracks.
Executive takeaways
- Q3 2026 revenue $16.8B, about +45% q/q (FT put it at +46% from $11.5B), versus more than +140% in Q2: growth is still extraordinary but decelerating fast.
- Q3 alone is more than 3.6x full-year 2025 revenue; Claude Code and Cowork took Anthropic past OpenAI on revenue this year.
- Adjusted operating margin 11% year-to-date through Q3, excluding stock compensation: progress toward profitability, not GAAP profit.
- Distillation (other labs training on Claude outputs) is an estimated 5–7% of revenue and will decline and weigh on Q4.
- Valuation debate: some investors want expectations below $1.5T versus the $2T some bankers floated; last private mark $965B (May).
- Timing: IPO expected in November, before Thanksgiving; raise size not disclosed.
- Headwinds: higher rates, sold-off neoclouds, Firmus Grid’s pulled IPO, OpenAI price cuts and cheaper open-source models.
- Annualised revenue (last $65B in July) was not updated, as that metric faces scrutiny after confusion over OpenAI’s version.
What The Information may be missing
The piece names no attendees, banks or raise size, and gives no Q3 profit in absolute dollars, cash burn, compute commitments or gross margin (Reuters has separately reported an 85% gross margin). It doesn’t break out revenue by API vs Claude Code/consumer vs enterprise, or quantify customer concentration, which is the key risk if price competition from OpenAI bites. It also doesn’t reconcile the 45% q/q figure with the FT’s 46% from $11.5B, or explain how distillation revenue is measured and whether it sits with Chinese labs. Dealroom should wait for the S-1 to record audited figures and treat the $1.5T–$2T range as banker talk, not a set price.
