The countries making a fortune from the US-China rivalry

The Economist argues a new commodity supercycle may be starting as America and China race to secure minerals critical to AI and electrification, with a handful of quick-to-produce countries winning. Reported facts: China has mineral deals with at least 19 countries since 2000 and Trump’s administration with more than 20; the World Bank said on 16 October it would quintuple a fund to $20bn. After China’s May 2025 rare-earth export curbs, US government and firms spent $15.4bn on foreign mines in 2025 (from almost nothing), the DFC was given $205bn, and Chinese state miners spent well over $30bn abroad. Five countries (DRC, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Zambia, Canada) took nearly 80% of the rivals’ overseas mining investment. In Kazakhstan, Kaz Resources (backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr, among others) is putting $1bn into tungsten and China-Kazakhstan deals exceed $10bn; in Brazil USA Rare Earth took over Serra Verde; in the DRC KoBold Metals is probing lithium. The article says countries aren’t forced to pick sides. Caveats: the strategy relies on existing deposits, exploration budgets never recovered, copper demand could outstrip supply by 8% within a decade, and state meddling muddies price signals. A correction dated 1 November amended Kaz Resources’ DFC/Exim financing figure.