Sequoia's Shaun Maguire models SpaceX revenue at $274B in 2027 and $731B in 2028, more than double Wall Street
What's the deal? Sequoia partner Shaun MaguireDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom → has published a bottoms-up financial model of SpaceX through the end of 2028, built after the company's third-quarter earnings call. In an X article titled "People don't understand SpaceX" he forecasts total revenue of about $51.5 billion in 2026, $273.8 billion in 2027 and $731.1 billion in 2028. He flags that Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder, that he is "extremely biased" and that the error bars are wide.
Where the growth comes from: Almost all of it sits in what the model calls SI: Grok, Cursor and other AI revenue, terrestrial compute, orbital compute and a Terafab line. Terrestrial compute alone goes from about $19.6 billion in 2026 to $569 billion in 2028, on capacity rising from 2.5 GW to 21 GW at roughly $40 billion of annual revenue per GW. Connectivity (Starlink plus direct-to-cell) grows from $19.1 billion to $88.5 billion, and space revenue from $5.2 billion to $17.3 billion. The model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from 2 this year and 38 next year.
The cost: Capex climbs from $88 billion in 2026 to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028. Cash burn is $77.8 billion this year and $122.6 billion next year before the model turns cash positive, by $114.9 billion, in 2028. Operating income reaches $483.9 billion in 2028.
How it compares: Analysts expect full-year 2027 revenue of about $110 billion, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC, though SpaceX guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion against a $22.2 billion consensus. Maguire's model has $36.3 billion for that quarter. On the earnings call Elon Musk said annual recurring revenue could reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Replying to Maguire's post, Musk wrote: "I think we can do better."
Read more: Shaun Maguire, "People don't understand SpaceX" (X), model summary (X), CNBC, Elon Musk (X)
