{
  "asOf": "August 2026",
  "source": "Dealroom analysis · SEC filings + public funding rounds and reported revenue",
  "methodology": "Private companies are plotted from a chosen valuation (the expected-IPO valuation by default, or the most recent priced round — toggle on the chart) as bubble size and enterprise value, divided by next-twelve-month (NTM) revenue for the Y-axis EV / Revenue. SpaceX, listed since 12 June 2026, uses its actual market cap on the IPO basis, less net cash. Rule of X uses an estimated forward 2-year revenue CAGR (FY2026→FY2028, matching the public basket's window) and an EBITDA margin. The three giants are excluded from the OLS regression and R-squared, which describe the public basket only. \n\nSpaceX restated August 2026 against the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-052535, filed 4 Aug 2026) and the Q2 earnings release (8-K, 0001628280-26-052515). Filed H1 2026 revenue is $12,508M: Q1 $4,694M and Q2 $7,814M. Q2 by segment: Connectivity $4,291M, AI $2,561M, Space $962M. Q2 adjusted EBITDA is $3,538M (45.3% of revenue); H1 adjusted EBITDA is $4,665M (37.3%), against 27% for FY2025. GAAP net loss is $541M in Q2 and $4,817M in H1. Trailing-twelve-month revenue through 30 June 2026 is $23.0B. Capex was $18,369M in the quarter, of which $15,828M sat in the AI segment. Cash and marketable securities are $100,009M against $39,364M of debt and finance leases, so the company now holds about $60.6B of net cash — a year ago the same line was $6.9B of net debt, and enterprise value is 3.5% below market cap rather than level with it. Shares outstanding at 28 July 2026 are 13.18B (7,696,293,669 Class A and 5,485,486,276 Class B). Market cap is $1.75T at $133.11 on 7 August 2026; the stock moved -13.6%, +6.1% and +15.8% on the three sessions around the print, so any premium quoted off it is dated within days. \n\nThe margin coordinate is now the filed H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% rather than the FY2025 27%. It is still a backward-looking number used as a forward one, and it moves the x-axis one-for-one where growth moves it three-for-one. No attributed forward margin exists for any of the three giants, so the coordinate remains a Dealroom assumption for all three. \n\nNTM is the forward-twelve-month integral from an August as-of date (4/12 x FY26 + 8/12 x FY27), not an annualized run-rate. FY2026-28 are a Dealroom house view: $38B, $80B and $120B, raised from $34.5B, $58B and $72B. H1 is filed, and the H2 build adds the three disclosed compute contracts as they start (Anthropic ~$1.25B/mo at full rate from July, Reflection ~$150M/mo from 1 July, Google ~$920M/mo from 1 October; ~$27.8B/yr at full run) plus Connectivity growing off a Q2 base of $4,291M. FY2026 consensus is about $39B and Morgan Stanley models $45B. Morgan Stanley's base case is $300 per share on a 15-year DCF at an 11.1% WACC with a 50% discount to the AI business, split $8 Space, $128 Connectivity, $12 X and Grok, $152 Enterprise AI, and it carries revenue to $319B in 2030 and $3.3T in 2040. On the Q2 call Musk guided to a $100B annualized run-rate by December 2026 and pulled the $1T target forward from 2031 to 2030. A $100B December run-rate implies a December revenue month of about $8.3B and a full-year 2026 near $45B, which is Morgan Stanley's number; our $38B says that exit rate arrives a quarter or two into 2027 instead. \n\nBacklog is now $47,461M at 30 June 2026, up from $27.6B a quarter earlier, after $14.1B of new AI cloud contracts and $6B of multi-year StarShield awards signed in the quarter. The compute revenue itself is still not committed backlog: the Anthropic lease carries 90-day mutual cancellation, Google may exit after 31 December 2026, and Reflection after three months. The Cursor merger ($60B implied equity value, all stock) had not closed at the filing date and is expected to close in Q3 2026, so no Cursor revenue is in any figure here.",
  "private": [
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_SPACEX",
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "ticker": "SPCX",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "Private",
      "sector": "hardware",
      "model": "b2b",
      "color": "#EC4899",
      "cagrPct": 78,
      "cagrLowPct": 58,
      "cagrHighPct": 105,
      "marginPct": 37,
      "ruleOfX": 271,
      "ev": 1250000,
      "ipoEv": 1689400,
      "ntm": 66000,
      "runRate": 23000,
      "rev2026": 38000,
      "rev2027": 80000,
      "rev2028": 120000,
      "evRev": 18.9,
      "ipoEvRev": 25.6,
      "valuation": "$1.25T",
      "valuationDate": "Feb 2026",
      "valuationNote": "last private mark · xAI merger (Dec 2025 standalone tender was ~$800B)",
      "ipoValuation": "$1.75T",
      "ipoNote": "Market cap at $133.11, 7 Aug 2026 (Nasdaq: SPCX) — IPO priced $135 on 11 Jun, first trade 12 Jun; peaked $225.64 on 16 Jun and fell below the IPO price in July. EV is $1.69T: the company holds $60.6B of net cash ($100.0B cash and securities against $39.4B of debt and finance leases)",
      "profitShort": "Adj. EBITDA margin 37% (H1 2026 filed, 45% in Q2) · GAAP net loss −$541M (Q2 2026)",
      "label": true,
      "private": true,
      "listed": true
    },
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_OPENAI",
      "name": "OpenAI",
      "ticker": "private",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "Private",
      "sector": "software",
      "model": "b2c",
      "color": "#8B5CF6",
      "cagrPct": 96,
      "cagrLowPct": 53,
      "cagrHighPct": 131,
      "marginPct": -45,
      "ruleOfX": 243,
      "ev": 852000,
      "ipoEv": 1000000,
      "ntm": 45000,
      "runRate": 24000,
      "rev2026": 30000,
      "rev2027": 70000,
      "rev2028": 115000,
      "evRev": 18.9,
      "ipoEvRev": 22.2,
      "valuation": "$852B",
      "valuationDate": "Mar 2026",
      "valuationNote": "primary · $122B round (largest private raise ever)",
      "ipoValuation": "$1T",
      "ipoNote": "Reported IPO target (~$1T+) — confidentially filed 8 Jun 2026, not yet priced",
      "profitShort": "EBITDA-negative · ~$25B est. 2026 GAAP loss · disclosed run-rate $24B (Mar 2026); tracked $41.3B (Jul)",
      "label": true,
      "private": true
    },
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_ANTHROPIC",
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "ticker": "private",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "Private",
      "sector": "software",
      "model": "b2b",
      "color": "#D97757",
      "cagrPct": 92,
      "cagrLowPct": 62,
      "cagrHighPct": 122,
      "marginPct": 0,
      "ruleOfX": 276,
      "ev": 965000,
      "ipoEv": 1200000,
      "ntm": 95000,
      "runRate": 74100,
      "rev2026": 57000,
      "rev2027": 135000,
      "rev2028": 210000,
      "evRev": 10.2,
      "ipoEvRev": 12.6,
      "valuation": "$965B",
      "valuationDate": "May 2026",
      "valuationNote": "primary · Series H, $65B round (up from $183B Sep 2025)",
      "ipoValuation": "$1.2T",
      "ipoNote": "~$1.2T at IPO (Series H was $965B) — confidential filing; bulls now talk $3T on a $100B+ run-rate",
      "profitShort": "EBITDA ~breakeven · disclosed run-rate $47B (May 2026); tracked $74.1B gross (Jul)",
      "label": true,
      "private": true
    }
  ]
}