{
  "asOf": "2026-10-26",
  "publicationDate": "2026-10-26",
  "status": "Publication authorized; evidence and scenarios as of 26 October 2026",
  "unit": "USD billions",
  "years": [2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031],
  "ntmWindow": "November 2026–October 2027",
  "methodology": "NTM is a calendar-weighted Dealroom estimate: 2/12 of FY2026 plus 10/12 of FY2027, assuming revenue is flat within each calendar year. It is not guidance or an observed monthly integral. Low and high use the same method. Growth is FY2026–FY2028 CAGR calculated before rounding. All FY2026–2031 company paths are the existing, unchanged Dealroom workbook scenarios, not forecasts derived from the new filings. Anthropic uses gross GAAP revenue. The private $2T comparison and $965B/$852B last rounds are equity values, not EV. SpaceX uses approximate equity market cap less September net cash. Only public companies enter the regression; listed SpaceX enters once when its region, sector and business-model filters and company toggle permit. Private overlays are visible context and never enter the regression. Outliers are determined by residuals from the initial public OLS fit and excluded from the refit only when the checkbox is selected.",
  "price": {"close":147.49,"date":"2026-10-23","classA":8246541218,"classB":5334522491,"sharesDate":"2026-10-15","sharesBasis":"Outstanding, not fully diluted","source":"spacex-10q","priceSource":"spacex-price"},
  "balanceSheet": {"date":"2026-09-30","cash":51.294,"marketableSecurities":38.561,"currentDebtAndLeases":2.698,"longTermDebtAndLeases":36.146,"netCash":51.011},
  "actuals": {
    "Anthropic":{"annualRevenue":{"2023":0.041,"2024":0.386,"2025":4.585},"quarterRevenue":{"2025Q1":0.376,"2025Q2":0.787,"2025Q3":1.382,"2025Q4":2.040,"2026Q1":4.731,"2026Q2":11.555},"h1Revenue":16.286,"q2OperatingIncome":0.974,"h1OperatingIncome":-0.693,"h1AdjustedOperatingIncome":1.618,"q2AdjustedOperatingIncome":2.235,"h1NetIncome":-80.748,"h1OperatingCashFlow":3.929,"h1CashAndShortTermInvestments":131.651,"q3RevenueFiled":null,"currentRunRateFiled":null,"source":"anthropic-s1","annualClassification":"audited filed","interimClassification":"unaudited filed"},
    "SpaceX":{"quarterRevenue":{"2025Q3":5.576,"2026Q1":4.694,"2026Q2":7.814,"2026Q3":14.575},"q3Revenue":14.575,"q3PriorRevenue":5.576,"ytdRevenue":27.083,"ytdPriorRevenue":13.714,"q3AdjustedEbitda":8.809,"ytdAdjustedEbitda":13.474,"q3OperatingIncome":2.791,"q3NetIncome":4.404,"q3Capex":19.593,"ytdCapex":48.069,"ytdOperatingCashFlow":13.097,"q3Segments":{"Connectivity":5.248,"Super Intelligence":7.560,"Space":1.767},"cursorClosed":"2026-08-14","customerBQ3RevenueSharePct":34.5,"source":"spacex-q3","classification":"filed unaudited"}
  },
  "spacexAnthropicContract": {"source":"anthropic-s1","classification":"Filed spending arrangements, conditional on capacity delivery and subject to cancellation; not guaranteed backlog","maximumSpendingThrough2029":120.5,"fullCapacityMonthlySpending":3.1,"expectedFullCapacity":"2026-12","initialNoncancelableEnds":["2027-01","2027-03"],"subsequentEitherPartyNoticeDays":90,"scenarioTreatment":"No additive revenue uplift: existing FY2027 total 140 includes residual Super Intelligence 102 after Connectivity 32 and Space 6; no customer-level bridge establishes incremental revenue."},
  "reported": {
    "Anthropic":{"q3Revenue":16.8,"reportDate":"2026-10-14","source":"anthropic-q3-news","classification":"FT report of investor communication; not in first public S-1","julyRunRate":65,"julyRunRateSource":"openai-september"},
    "OpenAI":{"septemberNetRunRate":50,"septemberIncludingPartnerRunRate":68,"decemberTarget":70,"targetClassification":"Bloomberg reported expectation, not booked revenue or company filing","source":"openai-september","targetSource":"openai-target","fy2025Revenue":13.1,"fy2025Classification":"secondary reported, retained workbook anchor"}
  },
  "companies":[
    {"name":"SpaceX","color":"#EC4899","sector":"hardware","model":"b2b","lastRoundEquity":1250,"lastRoundDate":"Feb 2026 (historical only)","base":[45,140,220,300,370,430],"low":[40,100,150,210,270,330],"high":[50,180,320,430,540,650]},
    {"name":"OpenAI","color":"#8B5CF6","sector":"software","model":"b2c","equityScenario":2000,"lastRoundEquity":852,"lastRoundDate":"Mar 2026","marginAssumption":-45,"base":[40,85,150,165,220,280],"low":[35,70,120,130,165,205],"high":[45,100,180,200,285,385]},
    {"name":"Anthropic","color":"#D97757","sector":"software","model":"b2b","equityScenario":2000,"lastRoundEquity":965,"lastRoundDate":"May 2026","marginAssumption":0,"base":[57,170,280,400,525,650],"low":[52,140,220,300,390,480],"high":[62,200,340,500,680,850]}
  ],
  "segmentAllocation":{
    "basis":"Explicit Dealroom allocation assumptions, not segment guidance. Super Intelligence is the residual to each unchanged company scenario; includes infrastructure, applications, Cursor and X advertising. Nine-month actuals shown separately, not annualized.",
    "low":{"connectivity":[18.4,28,39,49,60,71],"space":[3.6,5,5,5.5,6,6.5]},
    "base":{"connectivity":[18.4,32,46,60,75,90],"space":[3.8,6,8,10,12,14]},
    "high":{"connectivity":[19,30,45,60,80,95],"space":[4,6,7,8,10,12]}
  },
  "sotp":[
    {"key":"Connectivity","color":"#EC4899","revenue":138,"multiple":12},
    {"key":"AI compute","color":"#8B5CF6","revenue":200,"multiple":10},
    {"key":"Grok / applications","color":"#A78BFA","revenue":10,"multiple":16},
    {"key":"Other space and launch","color":"#5E8FD8","revenue":4,"multiple":25}
  ],
  "sources":[
    {"id":"anthropic-s1","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm","title":"Anthropic S-1, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary filing; annual audited, interim unaudited; p158 quarterly results, F21–F22 accounting, pp171–172 SpaceXAI commitment"},
    {"id":"anthropic-announcement","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/s1-sec","title":"Anthropic S-1 announcement, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary company announcement; IPO price and share count not set"},
    {"id":"spacex-q3","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm","title":"SpaceX Q3 earnings release, 20 October 2026","classification":"Primary SEC exhibit; unaudited financial results"},
    {"id":"spacex-10q","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001181412/000162828026066880/spcx-20260930.htm","title":"SpaceX Q3 Form 10-Q; cover shares at 15 October 2026","classification":"Primary filing; September balance sheet and exact October outstanding shares"},
    {"id":"spacex-apollo","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000110465926118614/tm2628247d1_8k.htm","title":"SpaceX Apollo financing commitment, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary 8-K; approximately $40B principal lease commitment, not funded September debt"},
    {"id":"spacex-price","url":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/history/","title":"SpaceX closing price, 23 October 2026","classification":"Secondary market-price table, browser-verified by researcher"},
    {"id":"openai-september","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html","title":"CNBC, 8 October 2026: September OpenAI net run-rate and July Anthropic investor figure","classification":"Secondary original reporting, full body verified by researcher"},
    {"id":"openai-target","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-09/openai-expects-70-billion-in-annualized-revenue-by-end-of-2026","title":"Bloomberg, 9 October 2026: OpenAI December expectation","classification":"Secondary reporting; captured search/excerpts, not a company forecast"},
    {"id":"anthropic-q3-news","url":"https://www.ft.com/content/11632d03-358c-454b-af95-d06d4072932b","title":"Financial Times, 14 October 2026: Anthropic Q3 investor report","classification":"Secondary reporting; captured excerpts and Reuters syndication, not S-1 revenue"},
    {"id":"workbook","url":"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10KWzyHxkfGkWqrLUvfMIivTGkU5Zy0hiz0IOAFItQ70/edit","title":"Dealroom Rule of X workbook, read-only snapshot 26 October 2026","classification":"Internal scenario source, unchanged FY2026–2031 paths and illustrative SOTP; not guidance"}
  ]
}