How stocks moved after the 2026 US midterms
Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in the 3 November elections. The next day the S&P 500 rose 1.6%. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla, defence companies, neoclouds and data centre suppliers fell. Big Tech, hospital operators and solar companies rose.
CoreWeave and IREN had already lost 25–34% before the vote
Share price change since the 31 July close, to the 4 November close
Source: Yahoo Finance · Dealroom calculations
CoreWeave and IREN rent out Nvidia chips. Their shares fell through October, before the vote, and the election added another 10% and 11% in one day. Vistra lost more on 4 November (14%) than in the three months before it (6%). SpaceX and Tesla had risen 30% and 28% since July before they fell. The chart below shows the move on 4 November alone.
SpaceX, Tesla and defence stocks fell the day after Democrats won Congress
Share price change from the 3 November close to the 4 November close
Source: Yahoo Finance · Dealroom calculations
Why they moved
Elon Musk. Musk spent at least $474 million backing Republicans, $224 million of it in Texas. Democrats won the Texas governor and Senate races. SpaceX fell 4% and Tesla 3%. Trump Media fell 25%, the largest move on the chart.
Defence. The administration has asked Congress for $1.5 trillion of defence spending in 2027, much of it tied to the war with Iran. Congress sets that budget. Drone makers fell most: Kratos 12%, Red Cat 10%. Lockheed Martin fell 7% and Palantir 2.1%.
Data centres. Voters rejected new data centres in 40 of 41 local ballot measures, and investors expect a Democratic Congress to push for limits on new AI data centres. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN rent out Nvidia chips from those buildings: they fell 10%, 7% and 11%. Comfort Systems, which installs their cooling and electrical systems, fell 15%, and the power producer Vistra 14%.
The rises. Hospital operators and health insurers rose on expectations that Congress will extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies: Centene 13%, HCA 10%. Solar companies rose on expectations of more support for clean energy. Microsoft rose 7%, Amazon 6% and Apple 5%, to a record high. Outside the chart, airlines, homebuilders and discount retailers rose 7–10%, on expectations of lower prices for households.
What this means
The election moved money between sectors in one day. Companies that depend on fast data centre building and on a growing defence budget lost value. Companies that depend on health subsidies and household spending gained. Investors use these listed companies as reference points when they price private companies in the same markets, such as Anduril in defence and Crusoe in data centres.