October's AI sell-off
AI stocks fell through October as investors asked when the money spent on AI will pay off. Intel lost 45%, CoreWeave 38% and Alphabet 18%. The same companies are among the biggest backers of private AI.
AI stocks sold off in October, led by Intel at −45%
Share price change since 30 September · 30 October intraday
Source: Yahoo Finance · Dealroom calculations
Neoclouds, which rent out Nvidia chips, fell most. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN lost between 35% and 41%. The two listed Chinese AI labs, Zhipu and MiniMax, fell 25% and 36%. Tesla rose 13%.
The three listed neoclouds lost 35–41% in October
Share price change from 30 September to the 30 October close
Source: Yahoo Finance · Dealroom calculations
Why AI stocks fell
On 8 October, a report put OpenAI's annualised revenue at about $50B, below the $68–70B that had circulated. Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave fell the same day. CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia chips, is down 38% for the month.
In mid-October, investors turned on how AI data centres are paid for, much of it with debt. The 20 most valuable AI and chip stocks lost more than $1 trillion in one week.
Results week made it worse. Alphabet fell 12% on 29 October as AI spending rose and search advertising slowed. Intel fell 29% on 30 October after a weaker fourth-quarter outlook than analysts expected.
The falling stocks back private AI: Nvidia joined 97 AI rounds in 2026
Including their venture arms
Source: Dealroom.co · share prices Yahoo Finance
Those bets include the largest rounds ever raised. Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft joined OpenAI's $122B round in March. Alphabet and Amazon joined Anthropic's $65B Series H in May. Intel and Intel Capital joined 11 AI rounds, including SambaNova and Xsight Labs.
37% of VC in 2026 went to rounds with Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft
Share of global VC funding · full round size
Source: Dealroom.co
AI money and Big Tech
Venture funding for AI companies reached $627B worldwide so far in 2026, up from $226B in 2025. Rounds joined by Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta or Oracle made up $304B of it, or 48%. In 2022 that share was 5%.
48% of AI venture funding in 2026 went to rounds with Big Tech
Global VC into AI companies per year · Big Tech is Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, full round size
Source: Dealroom.co · 2026 to 30 October
Five of them, the hyperscalers that run cloud data centres, spend far more on their own buildings and equipment. On their own guidance, they will spend about $815B on property and equipment in 2026, up from $413B in 2025. Amazon and Alphabet have said 2027 will be higher again.
The five hyperscalers plan $815B of capital spending in 2026, double 2025
Purchases of property and equipment per calendar year, $B · 2026 is company guidance (Oracle: Dealroom estimate)
Source: company filings and Q3 2026 guidance · Dealroom.co
That spending pays off only if AI companies earn money. Anthropic, backed by Amazon and Alphabet, made an operating profit for the first time in the second quarter of 2026, according to its S-1. Leaving out stock pay and one-off items, its margin was 19%.
Anthropic’s operating margin turned positive in the second quarter of 2026
Operating profit or loss as a share of revenue, per quarter · adjusted leaves out stock pay, non-cash donations and the Bartz settlement
Source: Anthropic S-1 · Dealroom.co · after a chart by Exponential View's AI Investment Brief
What this means
Three deals carry most of that money: OpenAI's round and Anthropic's two 2026 rounds make up $217B of the $312B. Without them, the four still joined rounds worth 15% of global VC, up from 9% in 2024. The five hyperscalers among them plan about $815B of capital spending this year. Anthropic's first operating profit shows that one large buyer of that capacity now earns more than it costs to run. If Big Tech pulls back on AI spending, private AI loses its largest backers.